Writing

Below is a list of my publications, working papers, and policy reports. For more, jump to my CV or Google Scholar profile.

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Book

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Peer-reviewed journal articles
  • “An Events-Based Approach to Studying Democratic Erosion” (with Hannah Baron, Jessica Gottlieb, and Laura Paler). 2024. PS: Political Science & Politics, in press
    • Replicate our analysis
  • “UN Peacekeeping and Democratization in Conflict-Affected Countries” (with Jessica Di Salvatore and Hannah Smidt). 2023. American Political Science Review 117(4): 1308-1326
    • Replicate our analysis
  • “Little Evidence That Military Policing Reduces Crime or Improves Human Security” (with Michael Weintraub). 2023. Nature Human Behaviour 7(6): 861-873
    • Read media coverage in El Tiempo
    • Read IPA’s summary of our results
    • Read Santiago Tobón’s commentary on our study
    • Read our policy report
    • Read our pre-analysis plan
    • Replicate our analysis
  • “Interventions to Counter Misinformation: Lessons from the Global North and Applications to the Global South” (with Pablo Argote, Jessica Gottlieb, Brendan Nyhan, Laura Paler, and Charlene Stainfield). 2023. Current Opinion in Psychology 54: 101732
    • Read our policy report
  • “Preventing Rebel Resurgence after Civil War: A Field Experiment in Security and Justice Provision in Rural Colombia” (with Manuel Moscoso, Andrés Vargas, and Michael Weintraub). 2022. American Political Science Review 116(4): 1258-1277
    • Read our pre-analysis plan
    • Read our policy brief
    • Replicate our analysis
  • “Civil War and Citizens’ Demand for the State: An Empirical Test of Hobbesian Theory.” 2022. British Journal of Political Science 52(4): 1748–1768
    • Replicate my analysis
  • “The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia” (with Samuel Bazzi, Christopher Blattman, Oeindrila Dube, Matthew Gudgeon, and Richard Peck). 2022. Review of Economics & Statistics 104(4): 764-779
    • Replicate our analysis
  • “Public Trust, Policing, and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from an Electoral Authoritarian Regime” (with Travis Curtice, David Dow, and Guy Grossman). 2022. Social Science & Medicine 305: 115045
    • Read our pre-analysis plan
    • Replicate our analysis
  • “When Do UN Peacekeeping Operations Implement Their Mandates?” (with Jessica Di Salvatore and Hannah Smidt). 2022. American Journal of Political Science 66(3): 664-680
    • Replicate our analysis
  • “Policing Ethnicity: Lab-in-the-Field Evidence on Discrimination, Cooperation and Ethnic Balancing in the Liberian National Police” (with Kyle Beardsley, Michael Gilligan, and Sabrina Karim). 2022. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 17(2): 141-181
    • Replicate our analysis
  • “Foreign Aid and Soft Power: Great Power Competition in Africa in the Early 21st Century” (with Robert Marty and Philip Roessler). 2022. British Journal of Political Science 52(3): 1355-1376
    • Replicate our analysis
  • “Community Policing Does Not Build Citizen Trust in Police or Reduce Crime in the Global South” (with Graeme Blair, Fotini Christia, and Jeremy Weinstein et al.). 2021. Science 374(6571): eabd3446
    • Read our pre-analysis plan
    • Read our policy brief
    • Read a commentary in Science by Santiago Tobón
  • “UN Peacekeeping and the Rule of Law.” 2021. American Political Science Review 115(1): 51-68
    • Replicate my analysis
  • “Foreign Aid and State Legitimacy: Evidence on Chinese and US Aid to Africa from Surveys, Survey Experiments, and Behavioral Games” (with Philip Roessler). 2021. World Politics 73(2):315-357
    • Replicate our analysis
    • Read our pre-analysis plan
    • Read our summary on the AidData blog
  • “Policing and the Legacies of State Predation: Evidence from a Survey and Field Experiment in Liberia” (with Benjamin Morse). 2021. Journal of Conflict Resolution 65(10): 1709-1737
    • Replicate our analysis
  • “Engineering Informal Institutions: Long-Run Impacts of Alternative Dispute Resolution on Violence and Property Rights in Liberia” (with Christopher Blattman and Alexandra Hartman). 2021. Journal of Politics 83(1): 381-389
    • Replicate our analysis
    • Listen to a summary on VoxDev
    • Visit our project website
  • “Is Theory Useful for Conflict Prediction? A Response to Beger, Morgan, and Ward” (with Nicholas Sambanis). 2021. Journal of Conflict Resolution 65(7-8): 1427-1453
    • Replicate our analysis
  • “Building Credibility and Cooperation in Low-Trust Settings: Persuasion and Source Accountability in Liberia During the 2014–2015 Ebola Crisis” (with Benjamin Morse and Lily Tsai). 2020. Comparative Political Studies 54(10-11): 1582-1618
    • Read our policy report
    • Read a summary in Forbes
    • Listen to my summary on Top of Mind
  • “Forecasting Civil Wars: Theory and Structure in an Age of ‘Big Data’ and Machine Learning” (with Nicholas Sambanis). 2020. Journal of Conflict Resolution 64(10): 1885-1915
    • Replicate our analysis
    • Read our pre-analysis plan
  • “Foreign Aid and State-Society Relations: Theory, Evidence, and New Directions for Research” (with Matthew Winters). 2020. Studies in Comparative International Development 55(2): 123–142
  • “Establishing the Rule of Law in Weak and War-torn States: Evidence from a Field Experiment with the Liberian National Police” (with Sabrina Karim and Benjamin Morse). 2019. American Political Science Review 113(3):641-657
    • Replicate our analysis
    • Read our pre-analysis plan
    • Read our policy report
  • “International Intervention and the Rule of Law after Civil War: Evidence from Liberia.” 2019. International Organization 73(2): 365-398
    • Replicate my analysis
    • Read my summary on The Washington Post‘s Monkey Cage blog
  • “Teaching Trump: Why Comparative Politics Makes Students More Optimistic About US Democracy” (with Hannah Baron and Shelby Grossman). 2019. PS: Political Science & Politics 52(2): 347-352
    • Read our summary at Inside Higher Ed
  • “International Gender Balancing Reforms in Postconflict Countries: Lab-in-the-Field Evidence from the Liberian National Police” (with Kyle Beardsley, Michael Gilligan, and Sabrina Karim). 2018. International Studies Quarterly 62(3): 618-631
    • Replicate our analysis
  • “Predicting Local Violence: Evidence from a Panel Survey in Liberia” (with Christopher Blattman and Alexandra Hartman). 2017. Journal of Peace Research 54:2: 298-312
    • Replicate our analysis
    • Read our policy report
    • Read media coverage in Quartz, SciDev and SciDev (again)
  • “Public Health and Public Trust: Survey Evidence from the Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic in Liberia” (with Benjamin Morse and Lily Tsai). 2017. Social Science & Medicine 127: 89-97
    • Read our policy report
    • Visit our project website
    • Listen to my summary on Top of Mind and The Academic Minute
  • “On the Rights of Warlords: Legitimate Authority and Basic Protection in War-Torn Societies” (with Pablo Kalmanovitz). 2016. American Political Science Review 110(3): 428-440
    • Read our summary on The Washington Post‘s Monkey Cage blog
  • “Patterns of Demand for Non-Ebola Health Services During and After the Ebola Outbreak: Panel Survey Evidence from Monrovia, Liberia” (with Karen Grepin, Benjamin Morse, and Lily Tsai). 2016. BMJ Global Health 1: e000007
    • Read our policy report
    • Visit our project website
  • “How to Promote Order and Property Rights under Weak Rule of Law? An Experiment in Changing Dispute Resolution Behavior through Community Education” (with Christopher Blattman and Alexandra Hartman). 2014. American Political Science Review 108(1): 100-120
    • Replicate our analysis
    • Read our policy report
    • Visit our project website

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Working papers
  • “Can Partisanship Persuade Americans to Depolarize? Experimental Evidence from 5 Million Voters” (with Jessica Gottlieb, Marie Schenk, and Christopher Woods)
  • “Content that’s as Good as Contact? Vicarious Intergroup Contact and the Promise of Depolarization at Scale” (with Lee-Or Ankori-Karlinsky, Jessica Gottlieb, and Samantha Moore-Berg). Under review
  • “Depolarization and Its Discontents: Experimental Evidence on Affective Polarization and Willingness to Confront Racism and Misinformation from Two Online Workshops” (with Jessica Gottlieb, Marie Schenk, and Christopher Woods). Under review
  • “Does It Matter if UN Peacekeeping Operations Implement Their Mandates?” (with Jessica Di Salvatore and Hannah Smidt)
  • Mano Dura: An Experimental Evaluation of Military Policing in Cali, Colombia” (with Michael Weintraub). Revise & resubmit, American Journal of Political Science
  • “Public Works and Intimate Partner Violence: Experimental Evidence from Egypt and Tunisia” (with Eric Mvukiyehe)
  • “Why Do Citizens Support Ineffective Military Policing Policies? Evidence from Field and Survey Experiments in Colombia” (with Michael Weintraub and Jessica Zarkin)

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Selected policy reports